Strengthening of large players reinforced the trend towards consolidation and acquisition of attractive assets. Throughout 2021 (and beyond) we will continue to observe these processes.
As a result of the market consolidation, the share of revenue accounted for by the largest players is growing now and will continue to do so over the next 2 to 3 years.
The market has been huge before, but the pandemic really turned the spotlight on it. It will take time for the market to process this unprecedented dose of attention and interest. As a result, there will be more and more requests for regulatory intervention by regional authorities.
There is an increasingly pronounced tendency across the industry to challenge the actual monopolists. What started as small attacks here and there is now transforming into a large-scale litigation. Over the next 5 years, we are likely to see big players divided, segmented, and strictly regulated. This will be not unlike what the oil industry experienced in the early 20th century.
(For those interested, here’s an excellent book by Daniel Yergin - The Prize: The Epic Quest for Oil. Money, and Power )
During the pandemic, large companies were able to strengthen their positions, small ones did not see a noticeable improvement. As a result, the gap between major players and the rest of the crowd has significantly increased.